http://repositorio.unb.br/handle/10482/39403| File | Description | Size | Format | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARTIGO_PandemiaCOVID-19Brasil.pdf | 544,8 kB | Adobe PDF | View/Open | |
| ARTIGO_COVID-19PandemicBrazil.pdf | 523,03 kB | Adobe PDF | View/Open |
| Title: | Pandemia da COVID-19 no Brasil : projeções do Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation e a evolução observada |
| Other Titles: | COVID-19 pandemic in Brazil : Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation Projections and the ensuing evolution |
| Authors: | Stein, Caroline Cousin, Ewerton Malta, Deborah Carvalho Ribeiro, Antonio Luiz Pinho Machado, Ísis Eloah Vasconcelos, Ana Maria Nogales Melo, Ana Paula Souto França, Elisabeth Ishitani, Lenice Mendes, Mariana Santos Felisbino Passos, Valéria Maria de Azeredo Sousa, Tatiane Moraes de Marinho, Fatima Schmidt, Maria Inês Gallagher, John Naghavi, Mohsen Duncan, Bruce B. |
| metadata.dc.identifier.orcid: | https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4777-1630 https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3455-8865 https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8214-5734 https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4678-2074 https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7589-107X https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9955-0824 https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6984-0233 https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7165-4736 https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5321-5708 https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2829-5798 https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4359-465X https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3287-9163 https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6209-1513 https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7491-2630 |
| Assunto:: | Covid-19 - Brasil Doenças transmissíveis Epidemias Previsão |
| Issue Date: | 17-Aug-2020 |
| Citation: | STEIN, Caroline et al. Pandemia da COVID-19 no Brasil: projeções do Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation e a evolução observada. SciELO Preprints, 2020. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1590/SciELOPreprints.1110. Disponível em: https://preprints.scielo.org/index.php/scielo/preprint/view/1110. Acesso em: 20 ago. 2020. __________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ STEIN, Caroline et al. COVID-19 pandemic in Brazil: Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation Projections and the ensuing evolution. SciELO Preprints, 2020. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1590/SciELOPreprints.1110. Disponível em: https://preprints.scielo.org/index.php/scielo/preprint/view/1110. Acesso em: 20 ago. 2020. |
| Abstract: | Objetivo: Descrever as projeções do IHME para a COVID-19 no Brasil e seus estados e discutir acurácia e implicações em diferentes cenários. Métodos: Descrevemos e estimamos a acurácia das previsões para o Brasil, comparando-as com as mortes cumulativas observadas. Resultados: A projeção prevê 192.511 mortes causadas pela pandemia até 1 de dezembro de 2020. O relaxamento continuado do isolamento físico obrigatório, apesar do aumento continuado dos óbitos, pode causar >63.000 mortes adicionais; o rápido aumento no uso de máscara pode reduzir o número para ~25.000. Vários estados poderão ter que reinstituir restrições. As diferenças entre as projeções do IHME até 6 semanas e as mortes registradas variaram de -11% a 48% para o Brasil. Conclusões: As projeções de curto a médio prazo do IHME fornecem informações válidas para informar os gestores de saúde, autoridades eleitas e a sociedade em geral. Elas sugerem curso prolongado, grande mortalidade e prováveis novas restrições. |
| Abstract: | Objective: To describe IHME projections for the COVID-19 pandemic in Brazil and its states and discuss their accuracy and implications for different scenarios. Methods: We describe and estimate the accuracy of these predictions for Brazil by comparing them with the ensuing reported cumulative deaths. Results: The pandemic is projected to cause 192,511 deaths by December 1, 2020. Continued relaxation of mandated physical isolation despite rising deaths could cause >63,000 additional deaths, while rapid increase in maskuse could reduce the projected death toll by ~25,000. Several states will likely be obliged to reinstitute mandated restrictions. Differences between IHME projections up to 6 weeks and recorded deaths ranged from -11% to 48% for Brazil.Conclusion: IHME short to medium term projections of deaths provide sufficiently accurate information to inform health planners, elected officials, and society. They suggest a prolonged pandemic course, with major mortality and probable necessity of renewed restrictions. |
| metadata.dc.description.unidade: | Instituto de Ciências Exatas (IE) Departamento de Estatística (IE EST) |
| Licença:: | (CC BY) - Este trabalho está licenciado sob uma licença Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. |
| DOI: | https://doi.org/10.1590/SciELOPreprints.1110 |
| Appears in Collections: | Artigos publicados em periódicos e afins UnB - Covid-19 |
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