Titre:	Metodologia para análise de risco de investimento em fontes de geração heliotérmica do tipo torre solar no mercado regulado brasileiro
Auteur(s):	Oliveira, Túlio André Pereira de
Orientador(es)::	Melo, Fernando Cardoso
Assunto::	Análise de risco Energia renovável Modelagem econômica Fontes heliotérmicas Método de Monte Carlo
Date de publication:	8-avr-2021
Data de defesa::	3-déc-2020
Référence bibliographique:	OLIVEIRA, Túlio André Pereira de. Metodologia para análise de risco de investimento em fontes de geração heliotérmica do tipo torre solar no mercado regulado brasileiro. 2020. viii, 93 f., il. Dissertação (Mestrado em Engenharia Elétrica)—Universidade de Brasília, Brasília, 2020.
Abstract:	The increasing demand for energy, associated to the constant need for a diverse energy matrix and the Brazilian climate factors, creates an extremely favorable environment for integrating new renewable sources of energy, such as Concentrated Solar Tower Power Plants (CSTP). However, it is still incipient the number of studies that employ a solid technical and economical analysis willing to assess the viability of integrating this technology into the brazilian scenario. Aiming to solve this issue, an investment risk analysis methodology is presented for CSTP plants in this study. In order to do so, the synthetic series for the main random variables of the problem are determined by applying stochastic theory and Monte Carlo Method. Then, a technical model of generation is presented for CSTP technology, from which is possible to determine the synthetic series of energy generation. Additionally, an investment assessment is performed using cash flow model and considering energy trade at the Regulated Contracting Environment (RCE). Finally, a sensitivity analysis is conducted taking into account the main parameters of the study, such as, the rated efficiency of power cycle, the selling price of energy, the total cost of implementation and the financing. The described procedure is then executed for two brazilian sites with high potential for solar generation, Brasília and Bom Jesus da Lapa, being designed for each city a 20MWpowerplant, so that the study could be handled. The results are evaluated from probability distributions of the energy generation, the Net Present Value, the Modified Internal Rate of Return and the Discounted Payback. By analyzing these data, it is possible to verify that the project initially conceived for both cities is economically inviable, being the sensitivity analysis a crucial tool for pointing out strategies that would allow the viability of this technology in the brazilian scenario and also to indicate what would be an optimist scenario for its integration in Brazil. In general, it is possible to ensure that this study offers an useful tool for decision making of power sector investors.
metadata.dc.description.unidade:	Faculdade de Tecnologia (FT) Departamento de Engenharia Elétrica (FT ENE)
Description:	Dissertação (mestrado)—Universidade de Brasília, Faculdade de Tecnologia, Departamento de Engenharia Elétrica, 2020.
metadata.dc.description.ppg:	Programa de Pós-Graduação em Engenharia Elétrica
Licença::	A concessão da licença deste item refere-se ao termo de autorização impresso assinado pelo autor com as seguintes condições: Na qualidade de titular dos direitos de autor da publicação, autorizo a Universidade de Brasília e o IBICT a disponibilizar por meio dos sites www.bce.unb.br, www.ibict.br, http://hercules.vtls.com/cgi-bin/ndltd/chameleon?lng=pt&skin=ndltd sem ressarcimento dos direitos autorais, de acordo com a Lei nº 9610/98, o texto integral da obra disponibilizada, conforme permissões assinaladas, para fins de leitura, impressão e/ou download, a título de divulgação da produção científica brasileira, a partir desta data.
Agência financiadora:	Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES).
Collection(s) :	Teses, dissertações e produtos pós-doutorado

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