Title:	Reservoir reliability as affected by climate change and strategies for adaptation
Authors:	Chaves, Henrique Marinho Leite Silva, Camila Correa da Fonseca, Maria Rita Souza
metadata.dc.identifier.orcid:	https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6312-8218
metadata.dc.contributor.affiliation:	University of Brasilia, School of Technology/EFL University of Brasilia, School of Technology/EFL University of Brasilia, Geography Department
Assunto::	Reservatórios de água Mudanças climáticas Confiabilidade de reservatórios Mudanças climáticas - adaptação
Issue Date:	22-Jun-2023
Publisher:	MDPI AG
Citation:	CHAVES, Henrique Marinho Leite; DA SILVA, Camila Correa; FONSECA, Maria Rita Souza. Reservoir reliability as affected by climate change and strategies for adaptation. Water, [S. l.], v. 15, n. 13, 2323, 2023. DOI: https://doi.org/10.3390/w15132323. Disponível em: https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4441/15/13/2323. Acesso em: 25 ago. 2026.
Abstract:	Reservoir operational reliability indicates how satisfactorily the structure meets the water demand without failure. However, due to the stochastic nature of its operation, every combination of reservoir storage capacity and draft has an associated probability of failure (i.e., of having an empty reservoir). The objectives of this research were to design a method to assess reservoir reliability under present and future climate conditions, and to apply it to the Descoberto reservoir, with a capacity of 86 hm3 and a design draft of 182.9 hm3 yr−1, located in central Brazil. The scenarios were the historic (1986–2005) and future RCM projection ensembles (2031–2050 and 2061–2080, RCP 4.5 and 8.5). Projected runoff was obtained with the Gardner model, and the reservoir budget was assessed by the concatenated behavior analysis (CBA). The reliability of the Descoberto reservoir, which was 100% during the historic period, was reduced to 15–50%, depending on the future climate scenario analyzed. The proposed adaptive measures, involving the reduction of reservoir draft and the increase in reservoir storage, were capable of maintaining a 100% reservoir reliability under the new climatic conditions, but with associated costs. The proposed method can be applied to other upstream reservoirs, providing water managers and stakeholders with a simple and robust reliability assessment and climate adaptation tool.
metadata.dc.description.unidade:	Faculdade de Tecnologia (FT) Departamento de Engenharia Florestal (FT EFL) Instituto de Ciências Humanas (ICH) Departamento de Geografia (ICH GEA)
metadata.dc.description.ppg:	Programa de Pós-Graduação em Geografia
Licença::	This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) license (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/ 4.0/).
DOI:	https://doi.org/10.3390/w15132323
Appears in Collections:	Artigos publicados em periódicos e afins

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