Título :	Riscos climáticos e mercado de carbono no Brasil : um estudo com modelos de equilíbrio geral computável
Autor :	Silva, Felipe Morelli da
Orientador(es)::	Sousa, Lucas Vitor de Carvalho
Assunto::	Mudanças climáticas Mercado de carbono Modelos de equilíbrio geral Emissões de gases de efeito estufa Políticas ambientais
Fecha de publicación :	23-feb-2026
Data de defesa::	16-dic-2025
Citación :	SILVA, Felipe Morelli da. Riscos climáticos e mercado de carbono no Brasil: um estudo com modelos de Equilíbrio Geral Computável. 2025. 131 f. Tese (Doutorado em Economia) - Universidade de Brasília, Brasília, 2025.
Abstract:	The goal of this thesis project was to adapt a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model to also address environmental issues. The original is dynamic, features a broad spatial structure, and stands out for explicitly incorporating several relevant mechanisms: labor mobility frictions, trade costs, intersectoral input-output linkages, international and intersectoral trade, and consumption of local final goods aggregated via a Cobb-Douglas function (with the possibility of extension to CES preferences). The adaptation proposed in this thesis consists of including emissions as a factor of production. This theoretical extension allows for the analysis of environmental policy instruments such as carbon markets on emissions, within a consistent general equilibrium framework that incorporates trade and migration. We consider this theoretical extension to be the main contribution of this thesis project, as it enables an integrated evaluation of environmental and trade policies in a dynamic and spatially structured model. To ensure the project went beyond the theoretical realm, we propose a practical simulation of a carbon market in Brazil starting in 2026, with three different scenarios for reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 2030, taking 2005 as the baseline year. All scenarios aim for a 50% total reduction in emissions by 2030, reaching approximately 1.28 Gt CO₂e, but they differ in how this target is distributed between deforestation and productive sectors. In Scenario I, the most restrictive one, all sectors — including deforestation — reduce their emissions proportionally by 50%, generating the largest decline in Value Added (VA), of approximately 0.83% by 2030. In Scenario II, less restrictive than the first, emission reductions are concentrated in deforestation (70%), while the other sectors reduce emissions by only 18%, resulting in an intermediate economic impact, with an accumulated decrease of 0.35% in VA. In Scenario III, the least restrictive for productive activities, deforestation emissions fall by 81.5% while emissions from the other sectors remain constant, producing the mildest macroeconomic effect, with a reduction of only 0.15% in VA. Therefore, the results show that the greater the policy focus on deforestation, the lower the economic costs of the transition and the smoother the adjustment for productive sectors. Moreover, in all scenarios, aggregate employment remains relatively stable despite reallocations across sectors — from more emission-intensive activities toward less emission-intensive ones, such as services — which suggests the need for complementary policies capable of preserving the productivity of the Brazilian economy.
metadata.dc.description.unidade:	Faculdade de Economia, Administração, Contabilidade e Gestão de Políticas Públicas (FACE) Departamento de Economia (FACE ECO)
Descripción :	Dissertação (mestrado) — Universidade de Brasília, Faculdade de Economia, Administração e Contabilidade, Departamento de Economia, Programa de Pós-Graduação em Economia, 2025.
metadata.dc.description.ppg:	Programa de Pós-Graduação em Economia
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