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Title: The relationship between (sub)tropical climates and the incidence of COVID-19
Authors: Prata, David
Rodrigues, Waldecy
Bermejo, Paulo Henrique de Souza
Moreira, Marina
Camargo, Wainesten
Lisboa, Marcelo
Reis, Geovane Rossone
Araujo, Humberto Xavier de
Assunto:: Temperatura
Umidade
Covid-19 - Brasil
Modelo Aditivo Generalizado
Issue Date: 5-Feb-2021
Publisher: PeerJ
Citation: PRATA, David et al. The relationship between (sub)tropical climates and the incidence of COVID-19. PeerJ, v. 9, e10655, 2021. DOI: https://doi.org/10.7717/peerj.10655. Disponível em: https://peerj.com/articles/10655/. Acesso em: 18 mar. 2021.
Abstract: This work explores (non)linear associations between relative humidity and temperature and the incidence of COVID-19 among 27 Brazilian state capital cities in (sub)tropical climates, measured daily from summer through winter. Previous works analyses have shown that SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, finds stability by striking a certain balance between relative humidity and temperature, which indicates the possibility of surface contact transmission. The question remains whether seasonal changes associated with climatic fluctuations might actively influence virus survival. Correlations between climatic variables and infectivity rates of SARS-CoV-2 were applied by the use of a Generalized Additive Model (GAM) and the Locally Estimated Scatterplot Smoothing LOESS nonparametric model. Tropical climates allow for more frequent outdoor human interaction, making such areas ideal for studies on the natural transmission of the virus. Outcomes revealed an inverse relationship between subtropical and tropical climates for the spread of the novel coronavirus and temperature, suggesting a sensitivity behavior to climates zones. Each 1 °C rise of the daily temperature mean correlated with a −11.76% (t = −5.71, p < 0.0001) decrease and a 5.66% (t = 5.68, p < 0.0001) increase in the incidence of COVID-19 for subtropical and tropical climates, respectively.
Licença:: Distributed under Creative Commons CC-BY 4.0
DOI: https://doi.org/10.7717/peerj.10655
Appears in Collections:PPGA - Artigos publicados em periódicos
UnB - Covid-19

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