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Title: COVID-19 epidemic in Brazil : where are we at?
Authors: Lobo, Andréa de Paula
Santos, Augusto César Cardoso dos
Rocha, Marli Souza
Pinheiro, Rejane Sobrino
Bremm, João Matheus
Macário, Eduardo Marques
Oliveira, Wanderson Kleber de
França, Giovanny Vinícius Araújo de
Assunto:: Covid-19 - Brasil
Análise de séries temporais
Issue Date: 2020
Publisher: Elsevier Ltd on behalf of International Society for Infectious Diseases
Citation: LOBO, Andréa de Paula et al. COVID-19 epidemic in Brazil: where are we at?. International Journal of Infectious Diseases, v. 97, p. 382-385, ago. 2020. DOI: Disponível em: Acesso em: 01 dez. 2020.
Abstract: Objetive: To analyze the trends of COVID-19 in Brazil in 2020 by Federal Units (FU). Method: Ecological time-series based on cumulative confirmed cases of COVID-19 from March 11 to May 12. Joinpoint regression models were applied to identify points of inflection in COVID-19 trends, considering the days since the 50th confirmed case as time unit. Results: Brazil reached its 50th confirmed case of COVID-19 in 11 March 2020 and, 63 days after that, on May 12, 177,589 cases had been confirmed. The trends for all regions and FU are upward. In the last segment, from the 31st to the 63rd day, Brazil presented a daily percentage change (DPC) of 7.3% (95%CI= 7.2;7.5). For the country the average daily percentage change (ADPC) was 14.2% (95%CI: 13.8;14.5). The highest ADPC values were found in the North, Northeast and Southeast regions. Conclusions: In summary, our results show that all FUs in Brazil present upward trends of COVID-19. In some FUs, the slowdown in DPC in the last segment must be considered with caution. Each FU is at a different stage of the pandemic and, therefore, non-pharmacological measures should be adopted accordingly.
Licença:: © 2020 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd on behalf of International Society for Infectious Diseases.This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (
Appears in Collections:DSC - Artigos publicados em periódicos e preprints
UnB - Covid-19

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