Título:	Migração entre regimes previdenciários nos Estados brasileiros com foco no Distrito Federal : déficit de transição versus espaço fiscal
Autor(es):	Barros Filho, Luciano Cardoso de
Orientador(es):	Ellery Junior, Roberto de Goes
Assunto:	Previdência social Aposentadoria Seguridade social Distrito Federal (Brasil)
Data de publicação:	3-Jul-2020
Data de defesa:	5-Mar-2020
Referência:	BARROS FILHO, Luciano Cardoso de. Migração entre regimes previdenciários nos Estados brasileiros com foco no Distrito Federal: déficit de transição versus espaço fiscal. 2020. 131 f., il. Dissertação (Mestrado em Economia)—Universidade de Brasília, Brasília 2020.
Abstract:	The challenge posed to the public finances of the Brazilian states, given the commitment of their accounts to the payment of social security benefits, has taken on major proportions since the 2000s. The demographic and social changes coupled with the maturation of the Public Servant’s Social Security Schemes resulted in a decisive impact on the finances of Brazilian subnational entities. In seeking to balance social security accounts, several states have proposed the introduction of the capitalization component in their pension systems. Mass segregation had been adopted as a way to alleviate the transitional cost involved in migration between regimes. The Federal District (DF) is an emblematic case of this change since it moved for funded pension in 2008, but reversed the process in 2017. Reversal that also occurred in several Brazilian states that followed the same path. However, DF maintained its intention to move for a funded pension and instituted a new mass segregation from 2019. Thus, the hypothesis assumed in the research is that DF did not have fiscal space to absorb the transitional cost, which led to the reversal of the first attempt at capitalization and therefore a new migration needs to take into account the existence of fiscal space in the state. The objective of the study is to measure the transitional cost and fiscal space of the Brazilian states to verify the relationship between migration reversal and fiscal situation. For this, we developed our own methodology to measure the transitional cost and to calculate the fiscal space of the states, the latter, based on some concepts of CAPAG used by the Union to assess the fiscal situation of states. The results pointed to a high transitional cost for public accounts and a poor fiscal situation in most Brazilian states. In addition, the pay as you go model associated with the implementation of complementary social security, which implies another way of introducing pension capitalization, was presented. It follows that any attempt to migrate between social security schemes must provide for fiscal space capable of absorbing costs throughout the transition. Finally, it is concluded that the pay as you go arrangement associated with complementary social security, as it presents a smaller deficit, is shown to be the most appropriate for most Brazilian states that intend to solve social security imbalances, through capitalization.
Unidade Acadêmica:	Faculdade de Economia, Administração, Contabilidade e Gestão de Políticas Públicas (FACE) Departamento de Economia (FACE ECO)
Programa de pós-graduação:	Programa de Pós-Graduação em Economia
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